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Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) surged more than 10% in premarket trading on Tuesday, extending a blistering post-IPO rally and putting Elon Musk’s company on course to surpass Amazon in market value.
The stock was last trading at $211.95, up 10.1% before the opening bell.
If those gains hold, SpaceX would command a market capitalization approaching $2.8 trillion, above Amazon’s current valuation of roughly $2.7 trillion.
The latest advance would cement SpaceX’s position among the world’s most valuable companies just days after its blockbuster stock market debut.
At one point in overnight trading, SpaceX’s valuation briefly exceeded that of Microsoft, which currently ranks as the world’s fourth-largest company with a market value of around $3 trillion.
The stock has now climbed more than 57% above its IPO price of $135.
Thin float fuels rapid gains
Market participants have pointed to the company’s unusually small public float as a key factor behind the sharp price movements.
Only about 5% of SpaceX’s total shares are currently available for public trading, limiting supply and amplifying demand-driven moves.
The first wave of insider shares eligible for sale is scheduled to be released on Aug. 11, when approximately 20% of insider-held stock becomes available.
Additional releases of around 7% are expected every few weeks through October.
CNBC host Jim Cramer highlighted the imbalance between buyers and sellers during overnight trading.
“The buyers, right now, 4 am are going nuts for SpaceX, taking it through $210. They just can’t stop buying and as you can imagine, there are no sellers of size around at this hour,” Cramer wrote on X.
Maybe it’s okay to you, but I would hate to see a meme stock–what SpaceX stock has become–walked to the size of Nvidia over a series overnight moves with no sellers. But that seems to be the goal. Maybe early release of those who want to go?? I am uncomfortable watching a stock go up ten points in a couple of hours of trading. And i LIKE the stock!!
Analysts warn valuation has outrun fundamentals
Despite the enthusiasm, some analysts have cautioned that the rally appears disconnected from the company’s current financial performance.
“We can say with certainty that this valuation makes absolutely no sense today. People are buying SpaceX in the expectation that others will buy too and push the price higher — that’s speculation,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, in comments reported by Reuters.
SpaceX generated revenue of $18.7 billion last year but reported a net loss of $4.9 billion following its merger with xAI.
Those figures stand in contrast to many of the largest technology companies, which continue to post substantial profits and cash flows.
CFRA initiated coverage of the stock on Friday with a “sell” rating and a 12-month price target of $115, implying a significant downside from current levels.
The research firm cited SpaceX’s ambitious growth plans, capital-intensive business model and elevated valuation expectations.
Index inclusion could provide further support
Even as valuation concerns mount, several near-term catalysts could continue supporting demand for the stock.
SpaceX is expected to receive fast-track inclusion into the Nasdaq-100, making it a major holding for passive funds and exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark.
FTSE Russell and MSCI are also expected to add the stock to their indexes later this month.
Meanwhile, the company disclosed on Monday that underwriters exercised their greenshoe option, increasing total IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion from the original $75 billion raised.
Trading activity has remained exceptionally strong.
More than $1.8 billion worth of SpaceX shares had changed hands by 5:02 am ET, exceeding the combined trading volume of several major technology stocks, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple.
Options trading in the stock is also expected to begin as soon as Tuesday, a development that analysts say could further increase volatility in the weeks ahead.
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