Connected vehicle installed base to surpass 1 billion by 2035 as LTE shutdown approaches

Connected vehicle installed base set to double as LTE shutdown looms

The global connected vehicle installed base is forecast to surpass 1.05 billion vehicles, more than doubling from 473.7 million units in 2025, according to Omdia’s latest research. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3%.

As the market expands, the next phase of connected vehicle development will focus on tighter service level agreements (SLAs), over the air (OTA) update programs, and service based architectures that support recurring revenue opportunities.

LTE shutdown creates new challenges for connected vehicles

However, Omdia warns that this growth trajectory could be disrupted by the planned shutdown of LTE networks, which is expected to have greater implications for the automotive industry than the earlier transitions away from 2G and 3G.

LTE connectivity is deeply embedded across critical vehicle functions—ranging from dynamic electric vehicle (EV) routing and OTA software updates to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and real time safety services—creating significant operational challenges for automakers and their technology partners.

“As the industry advances toward software defined vehicles—and increasingly explores what AI defined vehicles might look like—it has rightly embraced foundational enablers such as eSIM and hybrid terrestrial/non terrestrial (TN/NTN) connectivity,” said John Canali, Principal Analyst, IoT at Omdia. “However, progress on 5G adoption has been slow. With mobile network operators beginning to decommission LTE from 2030, automakers face a worst case scenario: vehicles that depend on connectivity but cannot attach to a viable network.”

Automakers must align vehicle roadmaps with network transitions

Omdia’s analysis examines the connected vehicle installed base by modem type and outlines the operational and commercial implications of changing network roadmaps. The research underscores the importance for OEMs to align product planning, SLA frameworks, and technology upgrade paths with mobile operator timelines. This alignment will be increasingly important to maintain continuity for safety critical services and connected features that generate recurring revenue as legacy networks are phased out.

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